Migratory species and climate change Impacts of a Changing Environment on Wild Animals

Biodiversity and Climate Change are intimately linked

Biodiversity is defined as the variability among living organisms from all sources including diversity within species, between species and of ecosystems. There is strong evidence that biodiversity influences the rate, magnitude, direction, and delivery of essential ecosystem processes such as pollination, agricultural pest and disease control, nutrient conservation in soils, and water purification.

In addition, biodiversity plays a direct role in climate regulation. Biodiversity affects the ability of terrestrial ecosystems to capture atmospheric carbon, their rates of evapotranspiration and temperature, all of which affect climate at local and global levels.

Biodiversity affects atmospheric carbon sequestration primarily through its effects on species’ characteristics, which determine how much carbon is taken up from the atmosphere, how much will be retained or fixed, and how much of this carbon will be released back into the atmosphere over time. The appropriate choice of species is potentially critical for maximizing carbon sequestration in the design and implementation of Climate Change mitigation activities.

The loss of biodiversity as a result of the clearing and burning of vegetation also contributes to global warming through the release of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Furthermore, as biodiversity is degraded or lost through human activities, options for coping with global Climate Change may be diminished. There is evidence that reductions in biodiversity limit ecosystem resilience, or its ability to recover to its original state after natural or human-induced disturbances.

Current and Expected Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity

In its third assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) determined that the global mean surface temperature has increased by 0.6 degrees Celsius over the last century, and that the decade of the 1990s was the warmest on record so far. Precipitation patterns also changed spatially and temporally, and global sea level has risen 0.1-0.2 m. It is forecasted that, by the end of the century, Climate Change and its impacts may be the dominant direct driver of biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem services at the global level. The scenarios developed by the IPCC project a further increase in global mean surface temperature of two to six degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, increased incidence of floods and droughts, and further rises in sea level of several centimetres.

All of these changes are already having significant impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems, including changes in species distribution, population sizes, the timing of reproduction or migration events, and increases in the frequency of pest and disease outbreaks. On average, the spatial distributions of a substantial set of studied species over different taxa has shifted 6.1 km per decade towards the poles or 1 m in elevation per decade. Spring events such as flowering and leaf flushing are occurring on average 2.3 days earlier per decade thus affecting the seasonal movement of species. Unique and highly productive ecosystems such as coral reefs have undergone major, although sometimes partially reversible, bleaching episodes caused where local sea surface temperatures have increased above the average for the warmest months.

Implications of Climate Change for Urban Water Utilities

There are many parts to the climate change story that come together to produce a picture of potentially significant implications for urban water utilities. This can create an information overload that, coupled with uncertainties, presents a barrier to understanding and to developing responses. This paper is designed to help move past this initial barrier in order to draw an effective focus on implications and responses. The story is broken into its main elements and considered in logical sequence without tangential details that are documented sufficiently in the scientific literature. The intent is to provide an essential understanding and then turn to consideration of the issues involved in developing suitable water sector responses to climate change.

A general description of climate change processes and effects follows the introduction. Impacts of these climatic changes on water suppliers are then identified and described, including regional differences. Responses to climate change are then discussed, both in terms of “adaptation strategies” to reduce or avoid impacts of climate change, and in terms of “mitigation strategies” that utilities may adopt to reduce the contribution of water utility operations to the production of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

IMPACTS ON WATER SUPPLIERS

It is important to make a distinction between the processes of climate change and the impacts on water suppliers resulting from these changes. Although global warming is fairly straightforward, the impacts on water suppliers may involve many additional cause and effect relationships.

It has become commonplace to mix discussion of the basic processes of climate change, for which there is good evidence documenting changes already underway (e.g., temperature rise), together with discussion of impacts that are more remote and uncertain in terms of both the chain of causation and timing. Weaving the story together in this way can add to information overload and leave an impression that impacts are already occurring at full strength when, in fact, their onset is still unfolding. The incidence of any given impact may come about as a threshold effect, or as a tipping point phenomenon, or as a smooth gradient, or in a number of ways. Recent extreme events such as droughts may support a belief that impacts are already upon us. While this may be the case, the worst may still be yet to come. We therefore have a need to understand much more about the cause and effect relationships that produce impacts. To emphasize these distinctions, impacts are discussed separately in this paper and further distinguished between direct impacts, indirect impacts, and compound impacts.

Direct Impacts

Direct impacts are defined as resulting from the effects of climate change on water utility functions and operations. In Exhibits 1 through 4, the direct impacts on water utilities are summarized for major regional scenarios in the form of simple cause and effect outlines.

These cause-effect outlines illustrate the possible direct implications of climate change forutilities in the Mountain West, the Southwest, the humid East/Midwest, and in coastal areas. A number of similarities are evident across regions, but there are distinct differences also. In addition, the coastal checklist could be merged with any of the others wherever larger regions encompass both types of conditions.

The impacts indicated on these outlines are not expected to emerge all together or at once. As discussed above, there are gradient functions, threshold effects, and conceivably many other influences involved in the chain of causation that will stretch impacts over time. With many climate scientists predicting an accelerating pace of change over the next several decades, these prospective impacts have meaning for today’s mid-to-long term (20-50 year) planning. We have every reason to believe these impacts are coming toward us. But utility planners will have to grapple with many of them prospectively rather than as phenomena that are already observable, except at the leading edge of the trend.

Preparedness for climate Change

Implications for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

The 27th International Conference of the Red Cross and Red Crescent of 1999 adopted the following decision in its Plan of Action: “The International Federation, while drawing upon existing research and the competence of relevant international bodies, will undertake a study to assess the future impact of climatic changes upon the frequency and severity of disasters and the implications for humanitarian response and preparedness.”

The International Federation was assisted in the preparation of the study by the Red Cross /Red Crescent Centre on Climate Change and Disaster Preparedness of the Netherlands Red Cross (Climate Centre). In June 2002, the Netherlands Red Cross established the Climate Centre in order to raise awareness, develop risk reduction policy and programmes in relation to climate change and disaster preparedness and to advocate the dialogue on climate change and the humanitarian consequences with policy makers on all levels.

The Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘Climate change 2001′ provides the most comprehensive assessment of the current scientific knowledge on climate change. It was therefore decided that the report would, rather than include a separate study on future impact of climatic changes upon disasters, present a summary analysis of the Third Assessment Report, especially ‘Working Group II, Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability’, which has particular relevance for disaster response and preparedness.

Summary

• Weather-related disasters are increasing: affecting 2.5 billion people and inflicting more than US$ 400 billion of damage over the past decade. These figures reflect an alarming rise in vulnerability to extreme weather events.
• Climate change is already happening and it’s here to stay: it is very likely that the global mean surface temperature in the 20th century has risen by about 0,6 °C. The 1990s was the warmest decade, and 1998 was the warmest year on record. This century is expected to see warming quicker than at any time in the past 10,000 years, the modern history of humankind.
• Climate change will have a variety of impacts: it is likely to lead to a rise in sea level, more droughts, floods, heat waves, water shortages, and increased threats to human health.
• Impacts will hit the poor hardest: climate change will disproportionately affect developing countries, and poor people within all countries.
• Impacts will be unpredictable: a country may be hit by drought one year and floods the next. Every government and National Society should assess the range of risks and plan to reduce vulnerability accordingly.
• Precautionary principle: a key element of the 1992 UN climate change convention is that a lack of scientific certainty is not an excuse for inaction.
• Adaptation is essential: we cannot prevent climate change altogether so we must adapt. That means integrating risk reduction strategies into humanitarian and development strategies.
• Seven steps for reducing risk: adapting to climate change requires a particular focus on disaster risk reduction. Only preparing to respond to disaster is not enough. The seven steps towards risk reduction are: carry out climate risk assessment, assess priorities and plan follow-up, raise awareness, establish and enhance partnerships, highlight vulnerability with other actors, document and share experiences, shape global response through advocacy.
• National Societies can make a major contribution to global efforts: all four core areas of the Federation Strategy 2010 – disaster preparedness, disaster response, health and care in the community, and principles and humanitarian values – are critical elements of the response to weather and climate related Preparedness for climate change disasters. The global network of volunteers working with communities on the frontline of disaster enables the International Federation to build the humanitarian dimension into global development policy. And the mandate for relief, development and health care enables the Federation to integrate disaster risk reduction across multiple sectors.
• Act now – in partnership with the world’s most vulnerable people, so that they do not suffer the consequences of inaction.

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The Climate Change Performance Index 2008

A Comparison of Emissions Trends and Climate Protection Policies of the Top 56 CO2 Emitting Nations.

The Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) is an innovative instrument that enhances transparency in international climate politics. On the basis of standardized criteria the index evaluates and compares the climate protection performances of the 56 countries that, together, are responsible for more than 90 percent of global energy-related CO2 emissions. The objective of the index is to increase the political and societal pressure on those countries which up to now have failed to take initiatives in climate protection and which still neglect the importance of the issue.

The overall results (table 1) clearly show which countries have to go the longest way in order to catch up. But even countries which are ranking high have no reason to sit back and relax. On the contrary, the results illustrate that even if all countries engaged in the same manner, current efforts would still be insufficient to prevent dangerous climate change. If climate change protection was an Olympic discipline, no country would deserve to climb the winner’s victory podium. Moreover, some of them benefit from specific external circumstances that can be considered fortunate from a climate change perspective.

For example, emissions reductions in some countries have mainly been caused by the breakdown of ailing industries after the collapse of the USSR or the replacement of inefficient coal industries.

And in some cases, as with front-runner Sweden, a country’s energy supply mix is affected by its advantaged initial position for the use of renewable energies.

In order to moderate the impact of these aspects on the index score, the CCPI takes a country’s changes in actual emissions – the emissions trend – with a weighting of 50 percent and its climate policy with a weighting of 20 percent into account.

Thereby, the index also reflects developments in domestic climate policy. Governments that rest on their laurels will have to face a drop in their position in next year’s country ranking!

Moreover, a country’s current positive ranking in the CCPI could not be maintained if the

Government decided to increase the use of coal due to rising gas and oil prices and concerns about energy safety. A strategy of this kind represents a step back from sustainable climate policy and shows its negative effects on a country’s index score. Despite the significance of the emissions trend for the evaluation, the absolute level of emissions must not be neglected. A country’s total energy-related CO2 emissions reflect the starting point for emissions reductions. Thus, the index recognizes that countries with initially low

Emissions levels should not be punished for having less capability for further reductions.

Particularly alarming is the poor performance of most of the ten largest CO2 emitters.

These countries account for more than 60 percent of global CO2 emissions. Their future willingness and ability to pursue a sustainable climate policy will therefore be an important requirement to avoid a highly dangerous level of climate change.

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The Greenhouse Effect And Climate Change

The greenhouse effect is a natural process that plays a major part in shaping the earth’s climate. It produces the relatively warm and hospitable environment near the earth’s surface where humans and other life-forms have been able to develop and prosper. It is one of a large number of physical, chemical and biological processes that combine and interact to determine the earth’s climate.

Climate, whether of the earth as a whole or of a single country or location, is often described as the synthesis of weather recorded over a long period of time. It is defined in terms of long-term averages and other statistics of weather conditions, including the frequencies of extreme events. Climate is far from static. Just as weather patterns change from day to day, the climate changes too, over a range of time frames from years, decades and centuries to millennia, and on the longer time-scales corresponding to the geological history of the earth. These naturally occurring changes, driven by factors both internal and external to the climate system, are intrinsic to climate itself.

But not all changes in climate are due to natural processes. Humans have also exerted an influence. Through building cities and altering patterns of land use, people have changed climate at the local scale. Through a range of activities since the industrial era of the mid-19th century, such as accelerated use of fossil fuels and broad scale deforestation and land use changes, humans have also contributed to an enhancement of the natural

greenhouse effect. This enhanced greenhouse effect results from an increase in the atmospheric concentrations of the so-called greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, and is widely believed to be responsible for the observed increase in global mean temperatures through the 20th century.

The relationship between the enhanced greenhouse effect and global climate change is far from simple. Not only do increased concentrations of greenhouse gases affect the atmosphere, but also the oceans, soil and biosphere. These effects are still not completely understood. Also, complex feedback mechanisms within the climate system can act to amplify greenhouse-induced climate change, or even counteract it.

This booklet presents the scientific basis for understanding the nature of human-induced climate change within the context of the complex and naturally-varying global climate system. It describes:

• the important role of the natural greenhouse effect together with a number of other large scale processes in determining the range of temperatures observed at the earth’s surface;
• the natural and human influences that force changes in climate;
• the observed behavior of climate in the recent and distant past;
• the basis for scientific concern at the prospect of human-induced climate change;
• how computer models of the global climate system are used to project potential changes in climate on a range of time and space scales;
• the coordinated actions being taken by the international scientific community to monitor, understand and assess potential future levels of climate change; and
• Recent scientific assessments of possible human induced climate change.

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Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005

15 KEY FINDINGS

KEY FINDINGS

Forests cover 30% of the total land area

The total forest area in 2005 is just under 4 billion hectares, corresponding to an average of 0.62 ha per capita. But the area of forest is unevenly distributed. For example, 64 countries with a combined population of 2 billion have less than 0.1 ha of forest per capita. The ten most forest-rich countries account for two-thirds of the total forest area. Seven countries or territories have no forest at all, and an additional 57 have forest on less than 10 percent of their total land area.

Total forest area continues to decrease – but the rate of net loss is slowing

Deforestation, mainly conversion of forests to agricultural land, continues at an alarmingly high rate – about 13 million hectares per year.

At the same time, forest planting, landscape restoration and natural expansion of forests have significantly reduced the net loss of forest area. The net change in forest area in the period 2000-2005 is estimated at -7.3 million hectares per year (an area about the size of Sierra Leone or Panama), down from – 8.9 million hectares per year in the period 1990-2000.

Africa and South America continued to have the largest net loss of forests.  Oceania and North and Central America also had a net loss of forests. The forest area in Europe continued to expand, although at a slower rate. Asia, which had a net loss in the 1990s, reported a net gain of forests in the period 2000-2005, primarily due to large-scale afforestation reported by China.

Primary forests account for 36% of forest area -but 6 million hectares are lost or modified each year

On a global average, more than one-third of all forests are primary forests (defined as forests of native species where there are no clearly visible indications of human activities and where the ecological processes are not significantly disturbed). The rapid decrease of primary forest area reported for the 1990s continued in 2000-2005. This decrease stems not only from deforestation, but also from modification of forests due to selective logging and other human interventions.

A number of countries registered positive change rates in the area of primary forests, including several European countries and Japan. This is possible because forests with no human interventions can evolve over time to meet the definition of primary forests used in FRA 2005.

Plantation forests are increasing but still account for less than 5% of total forest area

Forests and trees are being planted for many purposes and at increasing rates. Plantation forests – a subset of planted forests defined as those consisting primarily of introduced species – make up an estimated 3.8 percent of the total forest area, or 140 million hectares. Productive plantations, primarily established for wood and fibre production, account for 78 percent of the plantation forests, and protective plantations, primarily established for conservation of soil and water, for 22 percent. The area of plantation forests has increased by about 2.8 million hectares per year during 2000-2005, 87 percent of which are productive plantations.

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China and the Global Market for Forest Products

Transforming Trade to Benefit Forests and Livelihoods

China’s spectacular economic growth over the last decade is having a dramatic impact throughout the world. It has become a leading nation in terms of its demand for forest products, and its influence is being felt as far afield as Cameroon and Cambodia, Indonesia and the United States.1 Burgeoning domestic consumption, in a nation with very limited per capita forest resources, has fueled the rapid rise in China’s imports of forest products. Growing demand in the US, Europe and elsewhere for low-cost wood products manufactured in China has also contributed to the country’s ever-increasing demand for foreign timber. China has rapidly become the wood workshop of the world, capturing almost a third of the global trade in furniture over the last eight years.

In many supplier countries, particularly those with weak governance records, the increasing trade flows into China are associated with unsustainable harvesting, illegal logging and the abuse of forest communities’ rights.  However, China’s growing demand also creates the possibility that millions of low-income forest producers can benefit from this new market. Trees and forests are the primary asset of millions of the world’s poorest people and when governments enable the poor to use them wisely, they can be an important instrument of rural development.

China is now in the world’s spotlight, with governments, industry and development agencies eager to learn more about the global impact the country is having on forests and forest industries. Until recently, they have been hampered by a scarcity of reliable information and a lack of rigorous, publicly accessible analysis of macro-level trends. The primary source of market information to date has been proprietary analysis, the costs of which have precluded their use by all but the largest international investors and trade associations.

This paper and the body of research it represents aims to help fill the knowledge gap. It is an overview of the key findings of many research studies conducted by Forest Trends, the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy (CCAP), the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) and their many partners in China and the Asia-Pacific region. As an overview, it necessarily focuses on broader and more globally critical issues. We encourage readers interested in this topic to consult the background documents that are the basis for this report. They are listed in the annex and available on the Forest Trends website (www.forest-trends.org).

The synthesis of this research presents a wake-up call for the global forestry community. One of our key findings is that domestic and export demand for Chinese manufactured wood products will continue to grow dramatically, at least over the medium term and probably well beyond. So, in turn, will the demand for both home-grown and imported timber. Furthermore, China should be seen as the harbinger of even greater change, as India and other populous developing countries increase their demand for forest products.

It is now clear that the global forest market is undergoing dramatic changes, and that these changes have important implications for forests, forest people and industry globally. We hope this paper helps governments; industry and civil society gain a clearer understanding of their respective roles in the global timber market. It is also hoped that it will help them to take an important leadership role in helping to transform the forest products market to one that not only ensures sustainable forestry and conservation, but to one that provides satisfactory livelihood opportunities for forest dependent communities, and promotes sustainable economic development for all nations.

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